As much of the rest of Colorado looks toward a normal summer, Mesa County is in the throes of its worst COVID-19 spike since the fall, which has left its hospitals with just 5% capacity available.

Mesa is one of nearly half of Colorado’s counties to have fewer than 50% of its population vaccinated. According to the county’s public health website, 39% of the county’s total residents have been fully inoculated; just 43% have at least one dose. That low rate, coupled with the growing dominance of the delta — or Indian — variant, has led the county to a fresh COVID-19 wave that’s among the worst in the state.

As of Thursday afternoon, Mesa has the third-worst one-week cumulative incidence rate, according to state and county data. Its average positivity rate of 5.8% is also among the worst and is far worse than the state’s overall average of just 2.32%. 

A team of experts with the Colorado School of Public Health who regularly release modeling reports noted the situation in Mesa County in a report released last week. They estimated that roughly 1 in 86 residents in the region that includes Mesa County are infectious. That’s the joint-third worst rate of any region in the state.

“COVID-19 hospitalizations have been increasing in (the region including Mesa County) in recent days, which may indicate increasing spread of infections,” the modeling team wrote. “We will be watching this closely in the weeks ahead.”

The likely most troubling datapoint is that number of people hospitalized in Mesa County. Grand Junction, Mesa’s county seat, is home to two hospitals: the 300-bed St. Mary’s and the 44-bed Community Hospital. Across the entire county, there’s just 5.7% of hospital beds left available. Ninety-one percent of ICU beds are in use, and roughly 28% of ventilators are currently not in use. 

The county also has no public health orders in place, according to the state Department of Public Health and Environment. 

Thomas Tobin, the chief medical officer for Community Hospital, said all 44 beds in his facility are in use.

“COVID is just taking up capacity that could otherwise be used for the normal stuff that we take care of,” he said Thursday afternoon. “I guess, to be blunt, it’s frustrating to me because at this point, this is preventable. If our vaccination rate was higher, we wouldn’t be seeing this.”

He and Stephanie Busch, a spokeswoman for Mesa County Public Health, attributed the low rate to hesitancy. Both said that access is abundant in the county. But misinformation and hesitancy is depressing vaccination uptake, and the county is weathering the consequences.

“Not that I wanted this county to be the poster child for vaccination, but I think we’re a good example of — when your vaccination rates are low, this is what’s coming,” Tobin said. “And I think when you look across the state, you look at Denver, you look at some places where their vaccination rates are higher, they’re not seeing what we’re seeing or experiencing here. Vaccination is what got us out of polio, vaccination is what got us out of small pox. Vaccination is what’s going to get us out of this.”

The state has instituted a program to giveaway $1 million to five vaccinated Coloradans. But Mesa County has its own strategy, Busch said: the big shot incentive.

Between June 1 and July 31, the county is giving out $500 prizes each week to the newly vaccinated. At the end of next month, it’ll give out at least $45,000 to anyone who’s been vaccinated — either during the contest period or before. That prize will grow, Busch said: Each time a new person is vaccinated, another dollar will be added to the pot.

“I think it’s being driven by hesitancy,” Tobin said of the low vaccination rate. “I think it’s being driven by misinformation, and I think also, unfortunately — not just here but across the country, COVID-19 — not only the virus but the vaccine — has become more of a political statement than a health statement, and I think that’s inverted. This is a health crisis that needs governmental and needs everyone pulling in the same direction versus this being a political issue. This doesn’t recognize politics. This illness infects, maims and kills the same regardless of political affiliation.”

But vaccinations are not the only problem facing the county. The delta variant, first identified in India, is the dominant strain in the area, Busch said. Not only is the strain more transmissible, but an early Scottish study found that it may be more severe, as well. Reuters reported earlier this week that researchers said that the delta variant doubles an infected person’s chances of hospitalization when compared with the previously dominant strain in the United Kingdom.

Tobin said that anecdotally, it seems that the delta variant is indeed more virulent. Younger people, who typically would be expected to weather infections well, are increasingly ending up in Mesa County’s hospitals, he said. Some are also on ventilators.

Busch said that while 17 Colorado counties have delta variant cases, Mesa was the first in the state to identify it. 

“Our cases shot up because — we were doing pretty good for a while, even considering our lower vaccination rate,” she said. “But then (the delta variant) came, our cases shot up and with more cases, you do see more hospitalizations.” 

Neither she nor Tobin said they could predict the future of this current spike in Mesa County. Particularly for hospitals, the situation can change day to day. Health officials in the county met again earlier this week to discuss transfer planning, should the local hospital capacity be exceeded.

Tobin said he was recently asked if he and other health care providers in the area were tired.

“Of course,” he replied. “But we’re going to keep doing what we have to do because that’s what we do in health care. As health care workers, you don’t stop. We want everyone to help us and get us through this because we’re tired, we’re fatigued, but in the end, we’re going to keep doing what we do, and that’s take great care of patients and get them through this as best we can.”